More specifically, Morgan Stanley predicted that sterling would fall more than 5% from its then current value of  $1.56 to $1.48 within three months.

In the event, the pound stands today at $1.622 – i.e. up 4% – and will need a serious volte-face over the next few weeks  if we are to avoid seeing Hans off with his forecast.

Despite his enthusiasm, the index ran out of a bit of steam and limped over the line at only 5897.81.

According to this organisation, there was an element of déjà-vu about market conditions at that time, supporting the compelling technical reasons to ditch your equity holdings and head for the hills.

For those of us who are not au fait with the St Leger method (steady now), this involves selling out of risk exposure on 1 May and buying it back on the second Saturday of September – apparently this according to Trustnet, “…could work even more effectively in 2012 than it did over the last two years”. You see, markets fall much harder in the summer if there are setbacks, since stocks tend to be on higher price-to–earnings ratios following a strong run in the first quarter.

This sound brilliant – where do I sign?

For those who are interested, the FTSE 100 stood at 5777.11 at the end of April and, by the second Saturday of September had plummeted to an increase of 1.45%, while the IMA UK Equity Income sector made a gain of 4.33%.

Aye well – let`s hope that Dennehy Weller clients didn`t miss out on too may dividend payments when they were out of the market.

Comment/Submission By Mike Harriss, Wed. 17 October 2012

Back in March this year, the price of silver stood at $32.14, whilst that of gold was $1,652.

At the time of writing, silver has slumped to $26.96 per ounce (down a whopping 16.12%), whilst gold has fallen somewhat less to $1575.30 (down 4.64%).

Could have gone either way, I guess.

It is interesting that, only a few short years later, light touch regulation is being seen as one of the primary reasons for our current economic woes.  Indeed, the long-awaited report into the failure of the Royal Bank of Scotland was published in December 2011 and, principal among its causes, were `light touch regulation and a catalogue of financial errors’ (Daily Mail).  Populist statements, either in government or opposition often come back to haunt politicians.

It is to be hoped that his dash for cover didn`t miss too much of the subsequent June rally, where the eurozone came off its life support and even the double dip UK`s FTSE 100 managed to post almost a 5% gain.

He will therefore have been dismayed to read the report in FT Weekend (26/05/2012), which referred to the fact that, “Japan`s stock market is on its worst run since November 1977 – even though the central bank is pumping liquidity”

Had you been encouraged to invest at that time by Mr Callow`s enthusiasm, you would find yourself down to the tune of about 15% at the moment.  As Kenji Abe, strategist at Citi says, “The market is driven by sentiment. It is very hard to predict equity price directions in this kind of environment”.

Makes you wonder why some people keep trying to, really.

So, in the last 12 months to 21 May, Evy Hambro`s fund has dropped about 28% and, since he made his bold statement at the beginning of March this year, anyone investing over that period would have lost more than 8% of their investment.

Anyone for gold yet?

EDITOR`S UPDATE ON 26/03/2012 - The picture has been deteriorating still more for gold buffs over the fortnight or so since this blog was originally posted. According to Jack Farchy of FT.com, “Investors are losing their enthusiasm for gold as signs of improvement in the U.S. economy tempt them away from the traditional haven; gold hit a 10 week low of $1,627.68 on Thursday” (22/03).

It remains to be seen whether it will be the views of Mr Hambro or Mr Farchy that will prevail over the coming months.

(02/03/2012).….but I would prefer to buy it one week later when it has fallen by nearly 3%. According to the F.T. (10/03/2012), “gold prices sank to their lowest level in six weeks of $1,663.30 on Tuesday and also dipped below a key technical indicator. The skids were put under bullion as markets adopted a more pessimistic view over the chances of a third round of quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve.” With the gold price today down further to 1,646.38 at the time of writing, it`s a good job that it`s a marathon not a sprint, otherwise Mr Hambro might be accused of talking up his own book.

So, this leaves us with just over 1 in 4 admitting to not having foreseen the global financial crisis.  We Brits may lack many qualities, but we cannot count a lack of self-confidence among them.