Golden Bulls

admin — Mon, 28 May 2012 08:05:10 +0000

EDITOR`S UPDATE ON 29/05/2012 – It looks as though Jack Farchy of FT.com has been winning the battle of the gold forecasters over the last two or three months. Towards the end of last week, Evy Hambro, the Blackrock Gold and General manager admitted to being “thoroughly disappointed” by the poor performance of listed gold equities over the past few months (although he still believes that the catalysts for positive re-ratings are in place). ”New Model Adviser” stated that, like many of his peers, a gradual increased position in listed gold miners and a reduction in physical gold holdings had yet to pay off.

So, in the last 12 months to 21 May, Evy Hambro`s fund has dropped about 28% and, since he made his bold statement at the beginning of March this year, anyone investing over that period would have lost more than 8% of their investment.

Anyone for gold yet?

EDITOR`S UPDATE ON 26/03/2012 - The picture has been deteriorating still more for gold buffs over the fortnight or so since this blog was originally posted. According to Jack Farchy of FT.com, “Investors are losing their enthusiasm for gold as signs of improvement in the U.S. economy tempt them away from the traditional haven; gold hit a 10 week low of $1,627.68 on Thursday” (22/03).

It remains to be seen whether it will be the views of Mr Hambro or Mr Farchy that will prevail over the coming months.

(02/03/2012).….but I would prefer to buy it one week later when it has fallen by nearly 3%. According to the F.T. (10/03/2012), “gold prices sank to their lowest level in six weeks of $1,663.30 on Tuesday and also dipped below a key technical indicator. The skids were put under bullion as markets adopted a more pessimistic view over the chances of a third round of quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve.” With the gold price today down further to 1,646.38 at the time of writing, it`s a good job that it`s a marathon not a sprint, otherwise Mr Hambro might be accused of talking up his own book.

At Least One Journalist Talking Sense

admin — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 10:10:15 +0000

Damian Reece, in last Saturday`s “Daily Telegraph”, broke ranks from the journalistic vacuity of many of his peers who trot out futile predictions to ask, “what, then, is the point of forecasters?”. In an intelligently written article, he drew attention (courtesy of M&G`s Anthony Doyle and Bank of America Merrill Lynch) to the failure of the Bank of England to provide any meaningful forecasts for U.K. inflation, going on to say, “The danger is that the Bank`s doom-laden words, simply because things are uncertain and by definition risky, affects broader thinking in the economy and contributes to an unwillingness to invest, for instance.” A parallel situation of course exists with many of our well-remunerated active fund managers, whose momentum investing promotes volatility and invariably deters ordinary investors from taking decisions that are in their best interests – that being to invest gradually into index-tracking funds.

Financial Foot In Mouth » Daily Telegraph

Golden Bulls

At Least One Journalist Talking Sense