Welcome to Financial Foot in Mouth

Unfortunately for our experts, the fact that their predictions may be expressed with admirable conviction does not always make them correct.

I believe the time has arrived for our persuasive forecasters to be held to account for some of their more wayward pronouncements – and, with your help, this website provides the opportunity to do just that.

And, to make things interesting, contributors will be entered into a quarterly competition and given the chance to win fine champagne or wine.

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Now The Carnival Is Over

Why the tide has turned in Brazil`s favour

Quote by: Dean Newman (Head of Emerging Markets at Invesco Perpetual)
Quote made on: 29/08/2012
Quote Submitted by: James Reynolds
Source: FE Trustnet

Editor's Notes

Just over a year ago, Dean Newman did a convincing piece for FE Trustnet in which he explained how the Brazilian government`s hefty stimulus package, announced on 15 August 2012, would create a boost to economic growth and make the country a more investable proposition.

Well, anyone taking this as a cue for investment would have been better off blowing their money on a jaunt to Rio.

Over the last year, Brazil has turned out to be one of the worst global stock market performers, the market price return of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF having fallen by 12.86% during the most recent twelve month period.

One hopes that Brazil`s left of centre government turns things round before the Barmy Army descends on it to watch the World Cup next year (though we`re not necessarily forecasting that the England team will be there as well).

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Published on: October 3, 2013

Sterling To Take A Pounding

Sterling fall predicted as Carney keeps rates low

Quote by: Hans Redeker of Morgan Stanley
Quote made on: 17/08/2013
Quote Submitted by: Michael Chetham
Source: The Daily Telegraph (James Titcomb)

Editor's Notes

Around 7 weeks ago in The Daily Telegraph, Morgan Stanley`s head of foreign exchange strategy, Hans Redeker, was reported as speculating that the pound would weaken substantially in the months ahead, as policy-makers affirmed commitments to keep interest rates at record lows.

More specifically, Morgan Stanley predicted that sterling would fall more than 5% from its then current value of  $1.56 to $1.48 within three months.

In the event, the pound stands today at $1.622 – i.e. up 4% – and will need a serious volte-face over the next few weeks  if we are to avoid seeing Hans off with his forecast.

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Published on: October 2, 2013

Tell That To Cyprus!

The Eurozone Debt Crisis Has Come To An Official End

Quote by: Rupert Watson (Skandia)
Quote made on: 15/11/2012
Quote Submitted by: David Phillips
Source: Joshua Ausden (FE Trustnet)

Editor's Notes

Let`s hope that Mr Watson was correct when, just over four months ago, he thought that worries over an all-out default in Europe had finally disappeared, going on to say that; “the euro debt crisis is over, although the governance and unemployment/growth crisis has many years left to run.”

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Published on: March 22, 2013