Welcome to Financial Foot in Mouth

Unfortunately for our experts, the fact that their predictions may be expressed with admirable conviction does not always make them correct.

I believe the time has arrived for our persuasive forecasters to be held to account for some of their more wayward pronouncements – and, with your help, this website provides the opportunity to do just that.

And, to make things interesting, contributors will be entered into a quarterly competition and given the chance to win fine champagne or wine.

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Chinese burns?

China looking “good value”

Quote by: Austin Forey, Manager of JPM Emerging Markets fund
Quote made on: 20/03/2012
Quote Submitted by: Michael Shaw
Source: "New Model Adviser" (Matthew Goodburn)

Editor's Notes

According to `New Model Adviser’, “JPM Emerging Markets manager Austin Forey says last year`s market sell-off in China convinced him to finally go overweight the country for the first time.”

Hopefully not the kiss of death, Austin.  Two days later, the same journal reported that “European stock markets were once again fretting over the state of the Chinese economy on Thursday (22/03) morning, with poor manufacturing figures from the world`s fastest growing major economy souring sentiment.”

A brave call indeed, with the Shanghai index down almost 20 per cent over the last 12 months…………………..time will tell.

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Published on: March 26, 2012

Timing, timing……

“Profit From The Market Rally – investors encouraged to pick up undervalued stocks”

Quote by: Ali Hussain
Quote made on: 18/03/2012
Quote Submitted by: David Snapes
Source: "The Sunday Times"

Editor's Notes

Just when it looked safe for the bulls to come out, this exhortation for us all to fill our boots was rather spoiled by actuality. In the event, the ensuing five trading days managed to conjure up a loss of 110.67 , or 1.9 per cent, for the FTSE 100 which, in the words of the Weekend F.T., “…made its biggest weekly loss since the start of the year with mining stocks leading it lower on fears over the outlook for global growth. Fears of a lingering recession in the eurozone and poor data from the U.S. housing market left traders unwilling to move the benchmark index back towards its recent peaks”. Events, dear boy, events.

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Published on: March 26, 2012

At Least One Journalist Talking Sense

“Forecasting Is Just Voodoo Economics”

Quote by: Damian Reece
Quote made on: 24/03/2012
Quote Submitted by: Philip Dodd
Source: "The Daily Telegraph"

Editor's Notes

Damian Reece, in last Saturday`s “Daily Telegraph”, broke ranks from the journalistic vacuity of many of his peers who trot out futile predictions to ask, “what, then, is the point of forecasters?”. In an intelligently written article, he drew attention (courtesy of M&G`s Anthony Doyle and Bank of America Merrill Lynch) to the failure of the Bank of England to provide any meaningful forecasts for U.K. inflation, going on to say, “The danger is that the Bank`s doom-laden words, simply because things are uncertain and by definition risky, affects broader thinking in the economy and contributes to an unwillingness to invest, for instance.” A parallel situation of course exists with many of our well-remunerated active fund managers, whose momentum investing promotes volatility and invariably deters ordinary investors from taking decisions that are in their best interests – that being to invest gradually into index-tracking funds.

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Published on: March 26, 2012