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Unfortunately for our experts, the fact that their predictions may be expressed with admirable conviction does not always make them correct.

I believe the time has arrived for our persuasive forecasters to be held to account for some of their more wayward pronouncements – and, with your help, this website provides the opportunity to do just that.

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Golden Bulls

“I Would Buy Gold At Almost Any Price” ($1,711 on 02/03/2012)

Quote by: Evy Hambro (Fund Manager of Blackrock Gold and General)
Quote made on: 03/03/2012
Quote Submitted by: Roger Witherspoon
Source: "The Daily Telegraph"

Editor's Notes

EDITOR`S UPDATE ON 29/05/2012  – It looks as though Jack Farchy of FT.com has been winning the battle of the gold forecasters over the last two or three months. Towards the end of last week, Evy Hambro, the Blackrock Gold and General manager admitted to being “thoroughly disappointed” by the poor performance of listed gold equities over the past few months (although he still believes that the catalysts for positive re-ratings are in place).  ”New Model Adviser” stated that, like many of his peers, a gradual increased position in listed gold miners and a reduction in physical gold holdings had yet to pay off.

So, in the last 12 months to 21 May, Evy Hambro`s fund has dropped about 28% and, since he made his bold statement at the beginning of March this year, anyone investing over that period would have lost more than 8% of their investment.

Anyone for gold yet?

EDITOR`S UPDATE ON 26/03/2012 - The picture has been deteriorating still more for gold buffs over the fortnight or so since this blog was originally posted. According to Jack Farchy of FT.com, “Investors are losing their enthusiasm for gold as signs of improvement in the U.S. economy tempt them away from the traditional haven; gold hit a 10 week low of $1,627.68 on Thursday” (22/03).

It remains to be seen whether it will be the views of Mr Hambro or Mr Farchy that will prevail over the coming months.

(02/03/2012).….but I would prefer to buy it one week later when it has fallen by nearly 3%. According to the F.T. (10/03/2012), “gold prices sank to their lowest level in six weeks of $1,663.30 on Tuesday and also dipped below a key technical indicator. The skids were put under bullion as markets adopted a more pessimistic view over the chances of a third round of quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve.” With the gold price today down further to 1,646.38 at the time of writing, it`s a good job that it`s a marathon not a sprint, otherwise Mr Hambro might be accused of talking up his own book.


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Published on: May 28, 2012

At Least One Journalist Talking Sense

“Forecasting Is Just Voodoo Economics”

Quote by: Damian Reece
Quote made on: 24/03/2012
Quote Submitted by: Philip Dodd
Source: "The Daily Telegraph"

Editor's Notes

Damian Reece, in last Saturday`s “Daily Telegraph”, broke ranks from the journalistic vacuity of many of his peers who trot out futile predictions to ask, “what, then, is the point of forecasters?”. In an intelligently written article, he drew attention (courtesy of M&G`s Anthony Doyle and Bank of America Merrill Lynch) to the failure of the Bank of England to provide any meaningful forecasts for U.K. inflation, going on to say, “The danger is that the Bank`s doom-laden words, simply because things are uncertain and by definition risky, affects broader thinking in the economy and contributes to an unwillingness to invest, for instance.” A parallel situation of course exists with many of our well-remunerated active fund managers, whose momentum investing promotes volatility and invariably deters ordinary investors from taking decisions that are in their best interests – that being to invest gradually into index-tracking funds.

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Published on: March 26, 2012