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Almost 43% Knew The Global Financial Crisis Was Coming!
Economists call it `hindsight bias’, the rest of us self-delusion: only 27% of respondents to an online poll admitted to not having foreseen the financial crisis.
Quote by: Chris Marshall, "Citywire"
Quote made on: 23/04/2012
Quote Submitted by: David Gear
Source: "Citywire Money"
Editor's Notes
The results of this poll, carried out by ING eZonomics and attracting replies from 455 web surfers, posed the question, “looking back, do you feel like you knew the global financial crisis was coming?” The quite staggering response was that 42.6% said ‘yes’, while 30% weren`t sure and couldn`t remember if they predicted this particular catastrophe – maybe thay had a hunch, but weren`t 100% certain.
So, this leaves us with just over 1 in 4 admitting to not having foreseen the global financial crisis. We Brits may lack many qualities, but we cannot count a lack of self-confidence among them.
(2 votes, average: 8.50 out of 10)
Loading ...Published on: April 23, 2012
Legendary Investors Know Their Limitations – Why Not Others?
“My financial success stands in stark contrast with my ability to forecast events…..With regard to events in the real world, my record is downright dismal. The outstanding feature of my predictions is that I keep on expecting developments that do not materialise”
Quote by: George Soros
Quote made on: 2003
Quote Submitted by: Colin McKnight
Source: "The Long and The Short Of It" (Professor John Kay)
Editor's Notes
Soros is not alone in his humility. John Maynard Keynes also observed that the only justified answer to many questions about the future is “We simply do not know” – but nobody is rewarded for saying that. As John Kay has said, many people in the financial services sector profess knowledge of the future they do not have, and cannot have.
“For economic forecasters, as for other financial pundits, it is better to be conventionally wrong than unconventionally right.”
So, if real experts can recognise their own potential fallibility, why are there still so many (less justified) experts who cannot see past their own self importance? Worse still, why are there so many investors willing to believe their pronouncements? Beats me.
(No Ratings Yet)
Loading ...Published on: April 23, 2012
